2009

From an investment advisory letter: By Tom Dyson: “President-elect Obama makes his inaugural presidential speech on January 20. This speech is going to determine the direction of the stock market for the rest of 2009. Sentiment is the reason this speech is so important. Right now, America is feeling pessimistic. People are worried about their jobs, their houses, and their finances. No one is spending money. To get the financial system working, the government needs you to start shopping again and it needs you to start making risky investments again. In other words, the government needs America to start feeling optimistic again. The financial system we use today is a simple confidence scheme... a Ponzi scheme. To survive and grow, our system needs a constantly increasing river of capital. As long as more capital enters the system than leaves it, the system functions. As soon as new capital shrinks, the whole system breaks down. Debt is the reason. As long as we can find new capital to cover the interest on our existing debts, the system works. When capital dries up and we can't make our payments, the system crashes. This is what happened to Wall Street in October. On January 20, in his inaugural speech, Obama is going to announce a gargantuan government spending plan, probably around $750 billion in size. Obama's plan will make the problem worse. Every dollar the government spends must come from the revenues it receives from taxing Americans. Essentially, Obama will borrow money from the future and spend it today on investments the free market is unwilling to make. This wasted money will hurt our economy for years to come.” There are a few things here that make sense. However, I feel that if you get something for your money, the money is not wasted – no way. The country will get infrastructure, different types of economic engines, and improved efficiencies, out of its investment. If the private sector won’t do it, then a government subsidy is the only way. Or, maybe the country can save for the next twenty years until it can pay cash for everything? I’m no financial guru, but my guess is that that’s not going to happen. Sorry.

Blagojevich saga

Mr. Rod Blagojevich seems to be giving the people of Illinois a hard time. From a New York Times story: “Around the state, elected officials, many exasperated after three weeks of topsy-turvy political drama, responded with fury. “This provocative action is an insult to the people of Illinois,” said Pat Quinn, the lieutenant governor and a fellow Democrat, who added that the governor had defied the desires of an entire state.” Let me suggest something. If someone just finds Rod a good job, he will go away quietly. He needs the money from his job as Governor; he would otherwise not be fighting so hard to keep it. It’s like when your best friend suddenly takes off on you. You will have a hard time dealing with it until you find someone else, no? PLEASE. The woman at left seems to be saying something like “Catch me if you can.”

Saxo Bank

There’s this bank in Denmark called the Saxo Bank. It was founded by two men who only have a high school education. Since they have done very well, they can now afford the best talent in the field so that they really don’t need to know anything other than how to motivate their people (they have 1000 employees) and read the bottom line, where it reads “net income.” They have come out with a ridiculous list of prognostications for 2009. Here it is: 1. There will be an Iranian Revolution, 2. Crude oil will hit $25 a barrel, 3. The S&P 500 will hit 500, 4. Italy will drop the EURO, 5. The Aussie dollar will slump, 6. The U.S. Dollar will outstrip the Euro, 7. China’s GDP will go down to zero, 8. Eastern European currencies will fall, 9. Commodity prices will plunge, 10. The Yen will become a currency peg for other Asian currencies. All of this is way off base, but Saxo Bank (an online broker like Scottrade and Etrade but with a banking license) is putting it out to generate some publicity. I shall refer to this list every month to see how their projections are going. I think the woman at left is Danish but that's really irrelevant.

In Denial

From a story somewhere: WASHINGTON – “The two most influential women in President George W. Bush's White House — first lady Laura Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice — are strongly defending the president's legacy against critics who are calling his administration one of the worst in history. "I know it's not, and so I don't really feel like I need to respond to people that view it that way," Mrs. Bush said in an interview that aired Sunday. "I think history will judge and we'll see later." Rice took a similar view in a separate interview, saying that claims that the Bush administration has been one of the worst ever are "ridiculous." Let’s be real, please. He has dug us a hole so deep that it will be impossible to climb out of it. That is not ridiculous. Please wake up from your slumber.

They own us

From Yahoo! News: Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) – “The global recession is re-exposing fissures in U.S.-China relations that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson spent more than two years smoothing over. Heightened tensions between China and the U.S. may worsen a contraction in world trade that already threatens to deepen and prolong the economic downturn. The friction comes as President-elect Barack Obama readies a two-year stimulus package worth as much as $850 billion that will require the U.S. to borrow more than ever from China, the largest buyer of Treasury securities.” Tell me something I don’t already know. I said this was the situation two months ago. I think Bloomberg is stealing from my blog!!!! Please. No matter what, the woman at left is optimistic. You can tell by the hemline.

Nintendo what?

So this is how the unemployment money is being spent? From Yahoo! News: By Ben Silverman: “Despite early predictions that 2008 would be the year Sony regained momentum in the bitter video game console wars, it turned out to be false hope. Industry leader Nintendo stayed ahead of the pack all year, thoroughly dominating both the home console and handheld hardware markets with their Nintendo Wii and Nintendo DS systems, respectively. According to NPD Group, Nintendo flat-out owned the all-important month of November by selling over 2 million Wiis, better than twice as much as the next closest competitor, Microsoft's Xbox 360 (836,000).” Why don’t people just buy a game of checkers or, better yet, a nice chess set? I wouldn’t even pay $5.00 for one of these electronic gizmos. Do I want to turn into a zombie??? Am I too conservative? No!!! Remember, people who produce TV shows don’t watch TV. Maybe the woman at left does. Who knows?

Executive pay

From an investor advisory newsletter, don’t ask me which one: “In fact, American executives could learn a thing or two from some of their counterparts abroad. Just look at Haruka Nishimatsu, CEO of Japan Airlines Corp. for example. Each morning, Nishimatsu gets down to business immediately after his morning commute to the office – on a city bus. His desk – like those of all the other Japan Airlines employees – sits in the middle of an open office. I know this from personal experience, having sat at a desk just like that when I’ve worked in Japan over the years. He eats lunch in the company cafeteria and hopes – like all Japanese employees – that he’ll have time to eat his meal before it gets cold as he stands in line waiting to pay. This hardly sounds like the life of a corporate CEO, especially when you consider that JAL is one of the world’s top airlines. Nor does the fact that when JAL cut back and asked many of its employees to take early retirement, Nishimatsu first eliminated every one of his own corporate perks, including his own pay – which, at a mere $90,000 (U.S.), is below what JAL’s pilots get paid.” There’s something to be said for modesty and reality checks. Even the woman at left knows this. I have no clue who she is but she appears to be working hard.

Cinco minutos

I know you’ve been wondering which Symphony Orchestras are the best in the world. I can help you with that. This is my own order of preference: Vienna Philharmonic, London Philharmonic, Berlin Philharmonic, Royal Concertgebouw, New York Philharmonic, Pittsburgh Symphony, Chicago Symphony, Paris Conservatoire, San Francisco Symphony, Boston Symphony, Philadelphia Orchestra, Los Angeles Philharmonic, Czech Philharmonic, Detroit Symphony, and the Cleveland Orchestra. I cannot go into why I chose these but I can tell you I gave the list some thought – about two minutes’ worth. When you’re an expert at something, you don’t need to re-think your biases too much, no? That, by the way, is the best concert hall in the world, too. Take my word.

Nobody knows

From some article in Forbes: by Steven Berglas, PhD: “After 20 years spent studying, coaching and writing about scores of entrepreneurs, I know this about all of them: They don't question their motivation; don't wonder whether or not they are taking risks; don't ask themselves, "Will this work?" Instead, they just act --passionately, indefatigably, in pursuit of a goal.” The big, unanswerable question is: WHY?? Nobody can tell you where motivation comes from – why one person is motivated and another is not. Can you teach a person to be motivated? Berglas claims that it’s got something to do with wanting to change the world. Ok, sure, but WHY??? The woman at left doesn’t know either. Don’t even bother to ask her.

Target or Wal-Mart

From a story on Yahoo!: "NEW YORK – Shoppers hit the stores Friday to return unwanted gifts and take advantage of drastic price cuts offered by retailers desperate to get rid of old merchandise and boost their less-than-cheery holiday sales. Many retailers opened before 6 a.m., offering 50 percent to 75 percent off on toys, furniture, electronics and clothing. Stores were hoping the discounts would entice shoppers to redeem gift cards and use cash from returning unwanted gifts to buy something new." I did the same except I went to Target. Target had no deals for me. All the prices were about the same or higher. Shame on Target - a very, very bad store. Go to Wal-Mart instead. I think that's where this woman is headed.

Now what?

From a story in Yahoo! this morning: (Although there is not even a slight hint of frustration in the Pope’s message, we can only imagine what he feels as he realizes that the scope of his political authority (he is powerless) is not nearly equivalent to his moral authority (he is powerful). After more than 400 years of church and state separation, perhaps the time has come to unite church and state once again. Dare anyone say it? “VATICAN CITY – Pope Benedict XVI warned in his Christmas message Thursday that the world was headed toward ruin if selfishness prevails over solidarity during tough economic times for rich and poor nations. The traditional papal Christmas Day message "Urbi et Orbi" — Latin for "to the City and to the World" — usually covers the globe's hot spots, but this year Benedict also addressed the economic conditions worrying many across the planet amid near-daily news of layoffs, failing companies and people losing homes. Benedict told tens of thousands of people in St. Peter's Square that God's saving grace could "alone transform evil into good" and "change human hearts, making them oases of peace." Benedict dedicated part of his message to Africa, singling out Zimbabwe, where hunger is spreading and deepening. He said that people there were "trapped for too long in a political and social crisis which, sadly, keeps worsening." Millions of Zimbabwe's people need food aid, and a cholera epidemic has sharpened problems in a country once considered Africa's breadbasket. Suffering also continues in the war-ravaged region of Kivu in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and in Darfur, the pope added. In Somalia, people are weighed down with "interminable sufferings" as "the tragic consequences of the lack of stability and peace," he said. The girl at left is happy about something but we don't know what.

Going downhill

From the New York Times of December 25: “Much as Chanel and Dior and YSL carried on as luxury concerns well after the deaths of their namesakes, no American label seemed better poised to persevere in the absence of its founder than Bill Blass did. Blass changed things for designers on Seventh Avenue, who used to toil in the relative obscurity of its backrooms. By the sheer force of his talent and wit, he brought glamour to the job, and, by the 1990s, was so famous that his company had more than 40 licenses with annual sales of $500 million of Bill Blass products. There is no shortage of explanations for the label’s demise. There was an aging clientele, a management that seemed to take a freewheeling approach to the brand and its failure to find a successor who could match the Blass persona. (Blass died in 2002) Ultimately, NexCen, the new owner, blamed the economic climate. Without warning, NexCen announced in May (2008) that there was “substantial doubt” that it would remain in business. At Blass, fabric bills went unpaid. For the Bill Blass collection to fail in such an ugly way strikes many of those involved in the company as an especially cruel fate for a designer who made the profession seem so dazzling.” All this goes to show that bad management can drive a good business – even a great country – into the ground. The woman at left may be a former Bill Blass model, who knows? She may be one of the casualties of the failed business.

Recession???

I stopped by Target, Wal-Mart, and JC Penney this afternoon to do some last minute shopping. The parking lots were full to the gills, filled to the rafters, standing room only inside. Many shelves were bare. So, I asked myself - where is this recession that economists keep talking about??? Maybe everywhere else except here? Washington should put a commission together to look into this mystery. I did notice the price of gas is at $1.60 now. That much is true, but everything else is still expensive. Where is the deflation I keep hearing about? The woman at left must be smiling because her unemployment check is huge? Or she has a very rich husband? I have no clue.

Celebrations

This makes perfect sense to me. From Tom Dyson: “The Fed has aimed its printing press at the real estate market. The government thinks the falling real estate market is driving the recession and the credit crunch. If it can get the real estate market rising again, it thinks it'll be able to beat deflation and solve all our problems. So any signs of life in the real estate market will validate the Fed's strategy and generate a burst of optimism in the stock market. As I've been reminding you over the past month, the Fed's strategy is absurd. The best way to get prices rising again is to let them fall. The housing market needs to find the price where buyers and sellers meet. The more money the government throws at the market, the longer it'll take for prices to find their true equilibrium and the more time we'll be stuck in a recession.” The woman at left is waiting for us to act responsibly, so please hurry.

Starving Artists

From an article about executive pay: “Many musicians approve of high executive salaries – if, that is, the orchestra is doing well. But when it is not, frustration arises, as it also does over inequities in players' pay scale. The base pay of a New York Philharmonic musician is now $103,000. According to 2003 tax records, Glenn Dicterow, the New York Philharmonic concertmaster, was making $366,000 (this does not include income from engagements outside his orchestra schedule.) The have-nots in this scheme are primarily section string players, who have to pay for instruments costing significantly more than woodwinds or brasses – often in five or six figures. And in the case of brand-name soloists, the disparity is even more enormous. The violinist Itzhak Perlman and the cellist Yo-Yo Ma, two of the most reliable box-office draws in the field, are reliably said to make from $65,000 to $70,000 per night. That is as much as full-time players at orchestras like the Dallas Symphony, the Atlanta Symphony and the St. Louis Symphony make in a year.” This, of course, is peanuts compared to the salaries and bonuses of some of the country's large corporations. I think the average salary among those ranks is about $14 million. The woman at left is not an orchestra player, but that is entirely irrelevant.

Out of Afrika

NPR always has something to say about the troubles in Zimbabwe. It’s irritating. They just won’t leave it alone. Why is Afrika so dysfunctional? Does anyone know? Can’t someone do something to help this poor continent? There must be dozens of specialists in the State Department who make it their business to know as much about Afrika as their brains can hold, no? So, why don’t we have answers? Why no solutions? Who benefits from having Afrika remain a non-functioning continent? Is it anybody’s business to help the poor continent anyway? Certainly the Africans suffer from injustices right and left. They suffer from very poor health. That doesn’t help. Their life expectancy is the lowest on the planet. They suffer at the hands of dictatorial, unjust, and corrupt governments. That doesn’t help either. They fight each other in violent civil battles constantly. That’s not a positive thing. What to do? Throw money at it? Do they just need to learn to be just, to be fair, to share, to be honest, to be constructive, to be productive, and treat each other kindly? Would that do it? Can they even imagine a better world? Does anyone know? Hello?

Impure gold

This sounds very fishy to me: “Chris Weber, the editor of the excellent Weber Global Opportunities Report, makes the calculation in the most recent issue of his newsletter. He adds up the value of all the paper money in the world... and comes up with $100 trillion. Then he divides this by the total amount of "above ground" gold in existence – 5 billion ounces – and finds a fair value of gold at $20,000 an ounce. If Chris Weber's calculations are correct, the gold price would need to rise about 22 times to match the rise in the quantity of paper money in the system.” So, the question is, why aren’t all the other precious metals factored in???? This must be pure baloney. Gold is at about $850 an ounce right now (today). PLEASE. Even the girl at left knows better. Gold is not edible, remember?

Geiger counter

Do you believe this? “Right now, there are only 10 stocks worth trading. Just ten. out of 5,600 stocks. That's because the rules of money are changing. And the only companies worth looking at are the ones that are following the new rules. Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald knows the only 10 stocks you should invest in right now. He's developed a proprietary system that reveals their future price movements-right down to the penny - with a 95% accuracy rating. It's called The Geiger Index. Keith has spent more than 10 years perfecting this technique, and now he wants to share it with you. To find out how you can use it to your full advantage, take a look at the below report.” Baloney. If he knew that much, he would be Warren Buffet. He makes money selling the report, not buying stocks. PLEASE. The girl at left is saying something like "Convince me."

I.O.U.S.A. what???

From an ad I recently read: "At last, here's how you can own the award-winning I.O.U.S.A. documentary FREE on DVD... over a month before it's even available to the general public! It's my gift to you, and it's also just the beginning of what you'll get in our new "Emergency 'Personal Bailout' Bundle" — also FREE — which shows you... What a sham the bailout is, how we got here, and what happened to the America we used to know. How to rescue your retirement with up to 78 personal "bailout" checks instead, paid direct to your account over the next 24 months. And how to salvage the financial security of your children, your grandchildren and America itself." So, you think this is free??? Nope. Nothing is free. If you follow the ad until the very end - it is extremely long and wordy and repetitive and wordy and long (written for persons who have nothing better to do), you will discover that you will be pitched a report on how to get out from having to pay taxes to support the government. If you don't pay taxes, how will that salvage the financial security of America? It is sad and funny at the same time. I don't see the girl on the left laughing. She is sort of asking something like "What's all this about?"

Timid Reporter interviews Bernie Madoff

The Timid Reporter sent me this interview. Judge for yourself. (Any similarity to persons actually living or events actually happening is coincidental, he said)

TR: Good afternoon. Are you Bernard L. Madoff?
BM: Yes, but you don’t have to be so formal – call me Bernie, please.
TR: Yes sir. May I come in?
BM: Sure. Make yourself comfortable. I’ve been expecting you.
TR: It smells like apple cider in here.
BM: I hope you find it pleasant my friend.
TR: Yes, very pleasant.
BM: I would offer you some but I’m afraid we’ve run out of Styrofoam cups.
TR: Why not use a real cup?
BM: My wife won’t let me.
TR: Well, I drink beer anyway.
BM: Beer is bad for you.
TR: Not so far.
BM: Why do you say that?
TR: I’ve been drinking beer since 1798 and have not been badly affected.
BM: Is that so?
TR: Yes sir. I only stay away from dark ale.
BM: That’s very amusing although a little perplexing too because I know you can’t be conning me – I would be able to tell, you know. You don’t look more than forty years old.
TR: I suspect that’s probably true. You are a very shrewd and wise man.
BM: I know how men think and what they crave the most.
TR: You would have made a good psychologist.
BM: On the contrary – I think I would have made a good politician. A psychologist is easily fooled. A politician only pretends to be fooled – a politician is the greatest deceiver of all. He is the master of the ancient art of manipulation.
TR: Mr. Bloomberg might not appreciate your saying that about him.
BM: I can always say I was misquoted.
TR: But my readers know I’m very careful.
BM: Sure, but he’s not one of your readers. What are people saying about me anyway?
TR: That you’re a schemer, a deceiver, a thief, a fool, a fixer, a flake, and a fraud.
BM: Well, that’s not too bad though I don’t really care what people think. I only care about what my own family thinks.
TR: They are the ones who said it. It’s in The New York Times.
BM: How can they be so ungrateful?
TR: The New York Times?
BM: No, my sons.
TR: …Ruth and your sister and your niece, too.
BM: Well, shame on them for kicking a man when he’s down - a poor elderly man.
TR: Do you think you’ll end up in prison?
BM: You mean, die in prison? Of course not. What do you think lawyers are for? By the time we get done with all the appeals, I’ll be ninety five. I just hope they can save my licenses. I might go work at Merrill Lynch or Bear Stearns or Lehman - as a partner, of course.
TR: They no longer exist.
BM: What are you saying - since when?
TR: About four months ago.
BM: Are you serious? What is this world coming to?
TR: I think they went bankrupt.
BM: I remember hearing something about it. You know, I haven’t read much in the last three years – not even the financial papers. I simply haven’t had the time.
TR: What have you been doing?
BM: Doing? Doing a lot of bookkeeping, that’s what I’ve been doing.
TR: Didn’t you have people doing that for you?
BM: They couldn’t be trusted with the Ascot accounts.
TR: A lot of your friends are angry with you.
BM: How come they weren’t mad at me when I was making them a ton of money? Do they expect me to apologize?
TR: They want their money back.
BM: Sure, sure, everybody does. Don’t they realize that asking for their money back is what caused this whole enterprise to collapse in the first place? It was like a run on the bank. I warned them. Don’t cash out, don’t cash out – wait for a scheduled distribution. Be patient. Instead, it was like a stampede of wildebeest.
TR: Didn’t you at least have a few billion left?
BM: Sure I did, but I had to pay as many people as I could before word got out that I was insolvent.
TR: Who?
BM: My closest friends.
TR: Like who?
BM: Let’s just say Bloomberg, Trump, Schumer, and Kennedy got taken care of.
TR: …Because you didn’t want to cross them or what?
BM: No, I didn’t. They’re a mean bunch – more cold-blooded and ruthless than I am, especially that Caroline girl.
TR: What about Clinton?
BM: The Clintons took their money out two months ago - even Chelsea.
TR: Maybe they knew something….
BM: Of course they knew – everybody knew. Nobody’s that dumb.
TR: And the SEC auditors?
BM: They were somewhat incompetent, but I also think they had their doubts - you know how the government is – if you have enough clout, you have nothing to fear from them. I just told them that if they wrote me up I would go above their heads. They wrote their reports full of imprecise and equivocating double talk – you know, maybe this and perhaps that; it appears that and it seems like – really vague stuff, nothing you could sink your teeth into. Naturally, the upper guys let me off the hook every time. There was a lot of gray in those reports. I also let some of the SEC higher ups invest with me.
TR: Really?
BM: Sure. Would I lie about something like that?
TR: How did you fool the sophisticated investors and hedge fund managers?
BM: Easy.
TR: How?
BM: Look, let me give you an example. I’ve been around financial jargon all my life. I know how people react to it. When they don’t understand it, they get frustrated and would rather be gored by a bull than be made to feel dumb. I will give you an introduction to my investment strategy and you tell me when to stop.
TR: Ok.
BM: Typically, a position in an Ascot Partners account will consist of the ownership of 30 to 35 S&P 100 stocks, most of them correlated to that index, the sale of out-of-the-money calls on the index, and the purchase of out-of-the-money puts on the index. The sale of the calls is designed to increase the rate of return, while allowing upward movement of the stock portfolio to the strike price of the calls. The puts, funded in large part by the sale of the calls, limit the portfolio's downside or risk ratio. A simple split-strike trade involves buying a stock at price X, selling a call option with a price Y which is above X, and purchasing a put option with a strike price Z which is below X. If the price of the stock is above Y at expiration, the stock will be called away and the investor receives Y for the stock. If the price is below Z at expiration, the put can be exercised and Z received in cash. This effectively caps the maximum gain….
TR: Stop. Please.
BM: I could go on like that for hours.
TR: I believe you.
BM: So the idiots would just say to me: “Bernie, don’t bother to explain all this to us, we trust you, you’re a genius, just send us any gains.”
TR: Do you have any words of advice for my eight readers?
BM: Tell them they’re lucky to be poor.
TR: Thank you Bernie.
BM: Thank you my friend and sorry about the cider.

Lesson learned?

From an investor advisory letter: “A lot of people are wondering if there is anything at all good that will come from the financial crisis. Call me naïve if you like or even an eternal optimist, but I think so, beginning with the following: A regulatory overhaul leading to pro-active regulation: With regard to the financial markets, I believe that we will see new mechanisms designed to monitor problems before they get out of control. Some of that will include more transparent valuations and mark-to-market rules, but the lion's share will likely focus on the credit extension problems that have largely created this mess on a variety of levels. What's more, history suggests these changes will stand in stark contrast to Alan Greenspan's repeated refusals to crack down on sub-prime lending practices and his hesitation to impose regulations on derivatives that have figured so prominently in the current meltdown.” I disagree – I think people will always be greedy and irresponsible. In the meantime, Greenspan sits comfortably in his easy chair. Despite his old age, he is not wise. The woman at left probably has no opinion on the matter – she is simply waiting for us to act responsibly, PLEASE.

Whom do you blame?

From a popular investment newsletter: “Underlying the credit crisis gripping the U.S. and world economies is a crisis of confidence. Blame has been laid at the feet of the U.S. Federal Reserve, and an investment bankers’ brew of toxic financial products. Ultimately, however, it was the supposedly trustworthy rating agencies that got everyone to drink the poisoned Kool-Aid. The sheer fraud and greed of rating agency analysts and executives is staggering. That no one has gone to jail, and none of the agencies have been shut down is a travesty of justice on an infinitely larger scale than Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. Until depositors, bankers and investors regain confidence in the quality of ratings we rely upon to measure financial stability and creditworthiness, the tremors that underlie the credit crisis will drag on indefinitely.” I have to say I agree with this quote 100%. Let us pray that the Food and Drug Administration is not currupt on the same scale. Just imagine. I don't know who that is on the left but I know she is not an investment analyst. But, if she were, it would make absolutely no difference to anyone.

Deficits and ham

Someone is definitely in a panic over the government’s spending so much on the bailouts. The deficits are mushrooming. Yes, of course. There’s also this guy peddling a video entitled IOUSA. Here's the quote: “It is difficult to know what impact these changes will have on stocks, but I believe, in general, they will drive up prices. In addition to buying the world's best businesses (the Cokes, Intels, and Microsofts of the world), I believe you should have hedges in place for the coming devaluation of the dollar. In other words, you should be buying gold: plain, regular bullion gold coins.” Sure – like the man said: “If I had some ham, I could have some ham and eggs, if I had some eggs.” The woman at left has nothing to do with the credit mess, but it does no harm to have a pretty woman to look at while you go hungry or while you write a blog.

Discipline

Discipline is a wonderful thing. You can tell by the fruit you reap from exercising a little discipline, whether it's for your professional work life, or your social life, or your student life, or your spending habits, or your health. It pays to harness the power of discipline. Lilli Ewing is a champion bodybuilder thanks to her disciplined workouts. See what discipline has done for her and follow her example. She lives in Seattle - lucky Seattle!!!!

Duh!!!!

From a recent news story out of Yahoo!: “Oil prices tumbled below $40 for the first time since the summer of 2004 Wednesday despite an announcement from OPEC of a record production cut of 2.2 million barrels a day. Markets had already priced in a vastly reduced flow of oil and traders focused instead on troubling economic data that points to a long and severe recession. Demand for gasoline over the four weeks ended Dec. 12 was 2.7 percent lower than a year earlier. Meanwhile, the dollar suffered its biggest one-day decline against the euro after the Federal Reserve cut a key lending rate target to historic lows. That would typically lead more investors into the crude market because oil is bought and sold in dollars and you can get more bang for the buck. But investors in this harsh economic climate are holding onto their wallets like never before, betting there's not enough global demand to support higher crude prices, said Gene McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy. "Oil prices should be a lot stronger," McGillian said.” This goes to show that speculators control the price of oil - speculators and middlemen and nobody else. Demand dropped 3% but prices dropped 70%. Explain that to me please. A weak dollar should mean higher prices but it does not – explain that to me. I have said from the beginning that speculators control much of the markets. Right now, they are scared to death and do not want to lose any money if they can avoid it. Regardless, that beautiful woman on the left does not care – she’s dead. We are not. Don't you wish you could stay 35 forever?

Too good to be true

By now, most of you have heard of Bernie Madoff - the big-time con man from New York. He was never an investor or fund manager - he was and is a thief. He's the guy who played a gigantic Ponzi scheme game against hundreds of investors - many of whom should have known better. It's like they say - greed and charm will get you every time. When it's too good to be true - it's too good to be true. Now is a little too late to be wanting to be safe. The building to the left is the lipstick building in New York, where Bernie had his offices. Impressive, no? That's why I always say, invest conservatively. Buy lots of stock now, but do it wisely. Where Madoff is concerned, there are no high hemlines - sorry.

Kasparov arrest

If you follow the news, you already know about this, but in case you don't and in case you care, here it is:

“At least 100 people were arrested Sunday at opposition protests in two major Russian cities organized by Kremlin critic and former world chess champion Garry Kasparov, police and witnesses said. Dozens were detained and forced into police buses at Triumfalnaya Square in central Moscow, where Kasparov and other activists had planned to hold an unsanctioned "Dissenter's March," an AFP journalist said. The arrests came a day after Kasparov and fellow government critics launched a new opposition group, Solidarity, and vowed to "dismantle" the regime of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Several hundred yards away on Pushkin Square an AFP photographer saw about 15 elderly people who said they were retired military officers being detained by police as they prepared to head for the march. "Around 90 people were detained," police spokesman Viktor Biryukov told AFP, adding they may face administrative measures, a term that usually means fines. The detained activists included writer Eduard Limonov, founder of the National Bolshevik Party, a banned radical group, his aide Alexander Averin told AFP by telephone from a bus where they were being held. It was not immediately clear what happened to Kasparov. Hundreds of police filled the area around Triumfalnaya Square ahead of the planned demonstration, surrounding it with trucks and metal barriers. Kasparov and his allies had vowed to hold the Dissenter's March there to protest what they view as Putin's undemocratic policies, despite not receiving police permission. Ahead of the arrests, a spokesman for the Moscow police told the Interfax news agency that authorities would be "tough but lawful" in dealing with the unsanctioned protest. The retired officers were detained as they prepared to head toward the Dissenter's March, an AFP photographer said. Kasparov's website reported that they included retired general Alexei Fomin, head of a group called the Union of Soviet Officers, which had gathered to mark the anniversary of the Decembrist uprising of 1825, a revolt led by officers against Tsar Nicholas I. About 10 people were detained at a parallel Dissenter's March held in Saint Petersburg, an AFP journalist witnessed. Some 300 people gathered in the northern city to chant slogans including "No to the Amendments," referring to proposed constitutional amendments that would extend presidential terms from four years to six. "What is happening in this country is a catastrophe," said Alexander, an engineer who attended the protest. Sunday also saw a police-sanctioned protest of about 100 people in central Moscow organized by The Right Cause, a liberal party created last month with Kremlin approval after a merger of three other parties." It is so easy to dissent when you have nothing to lose; in Russia, you cannot disagree with the government without expecting to be detained, possibly arrested, possibly fined, and possibly beat up. Ciao.

Old Age remedies

This is a picture of Bettie Paige when she was young and beautiful. She used to be a pinup model and a centerfold. She's dead now. She died recently at age 85. She was probably quite wrinkled and frail. It's nothing to be ashamed of but we should also not try to put a pretty face on old age - old people are not attractive and they certainly are not healthy. Old age is a curse. A big one. You die after that. People forget about you. There is no use in calling old age the "golden years" and the age at which wisdom is acquired - baloney. 99% of old people will trade you their wisdom for a young and healthy body any day. You can take acai berries and yogurt and vitamins and goji juice and ginseng and green tea and anything else you want. There's nothing wrong with that, nothing at all, but you will still get old and weak. Until there's a cure, stay as healthy as you can - please. Good luck.

Hemlines again

Again, I must say I told you so. I'm no guru when it comes to investing but you just have to know that when prices are low, that's the time to buy. The following is a quote from an investment advisory but I forget which one: "The stock market is presenting you with one of the great buying opportunities of your lifetime – perhaps the greatest. Stop trying to pick the bottom." That's what 41-year market veteran Steve Leuthold, of the Leuthold Group, just told his clients. "The most difficult decision is not what to buy," he says. "Just buy!" Leuthold is one of our favorites, primarily because he doesn't follow the crowd... even when it's to the detriment of his own business. For example, for much of the last decade, he's been bearish on stocks. Clients don't line up to give you money when you're bearish. But Steve launched the Leuthold Grizzly Fund in June 2000, near the top of the stock market bubble. The Grizzly Fund is up nearly 80% this year. He was right to be bearish this decade. As he told his clients, stocks lost as much over the last 10 years as they did from 1929 to 1939, which was "the worst 10-year performance in U.S. stock market history. " Also, if you must be certain, observe hemlines - they're not coming down so that means the stock market is gearing up for a spectacular rise. Need I say more???

Bankruptcy Prediction

From a popular investor newsletter: "This Friday, Dec. 12th, the next stage of the financial crisis will begin. That's when one of America's biggest businesses (they operate in 44 states), will undoubtedly declare bankruptcy. How can I be so sure it will happen on Friday, December 12th? Two words: Un-payable debt. You see, the company I'm talking about, which is the 2nd biggest in its industry, and is headquartered in Chicago, has until Friday, December 12th at midnight to pay back a $900 MILLION loan. In the current market, this amount of debt is lethal. The company is currently paying over $1 billion per year in interest expenses to finance their debt—that's MORE THAN THEIR OPERATING INCOME. (That's like having a mortgage payment that's bigger than your entire paycheck.) There is absolutely no way the company can make this $900 million payment or raise this kind of money." Unfortunately, we are never told who it is although I remember reading a financial report a few days ago regarding this company, I don't remember who it was. It deals in commodities. In honor of black Friday, a black violin.

Hank Paulson interview

Before we start, I must give you a little background (what little I know) about Hank Paulson. He socializes very little, he is an environment enthusiast, he has many, many, many friends in high places in China, and he is obsessed with snakes. The lady in the red wig has nothing to do with Paulson, I just put her there because I wanted to. She looks as if she has no clue where she's going but I bet she does. The wig is probably from the dollar store. As always, any similarity between the person being interviewed and/or any current events is strictly coincidental.

TR: Good afternoon. Are you Hank Paulson?
HP: Yes sir, and you must be Mr. Quan?
TR: No, I’m with the Coffee Club Newsletter.
HP: Where’s Mr. Quan?
TR: I don’t know.
HP: So, why are you here in his place?
TR: I’m not taking his place – I’m here to do an interview with you.
HP: Oh, you’re that other guy. Do you care at all about global warming?
TR: May I come in?
HP: Only if you promise we’ll discuss climate change and the environment.
TR: We can discuss whatever you want to discuss.
HP: Step right this way.
TR: Wow, this looks like a greenhouse.
HP: It is.
TR: I’ve never seen so many indoor plants before.
HP: Wait ‘til you see the snakes.
TR: Snakes? How many snakes?
HP: Twenty six, but they are not all here – some we keep in the bedrooms.
TR: Oh.
HP: I know them all by name.
TR: One for each letter of the alphabet.
HP: How did you guess?
TR: I’m just good at guessing. How do you tell them apart?
HP: They’ve been in the family a number of years – after a while you just recognize them. It’s like telling your dollar bills apart. They’re all the same but they’re all different. There comes Chrimata now from under that fern.
TR: Chrimata?
HP: It’s the Greek word for “money.”
TR: I should have guessed.
HP: And Fiduciary is right behind her. Isn’t he cute?
TR: To me, they’re just snakes.
HP: You have a lot to learn. Let’s sit down in my study.
TR: Can I have a Corona Light?
HP: Sure. That’s my favorite beer - another lucky guess?
TR: No. I just like the way it tastes. I’m glad you have it in the house – even Buckingham Palace doesn’t stock it.
HP: You’ve been there?
TR: I interviewed the Queen.
HP: Sure you did.
TR: I don’t tell lies.
HP: You must be the only one on the planet.
TR: No, my father too.
HP: Really? And where might he be from?
TR: Austria, but he’s in the Himalayas right now.
HP: …doing?
TR: Collecting bark from an old tree.
HP: Is he a researcher, an environmental scientist?
TR: No, he needs it to stay alive.
HP: Is he ill?
TR: Not at all. He’s just really old. He will soon be 2000.
HP: 2000 years old?
TR: Yes.
HP: You know, I’ve been around a lot of bankers and finance people and business people almost all my life…
TR: Yes, I know.
HP: …I have learned to read them pretty well – perfectly, in fact. Even by the slightest inflection in their speech – I can tell when they’re trying to sell me the Brooklyn Bridge. Your story sounds very convincing – you’re either the world’s best liar or you’re telling me the absolute truth.
TR: Well, to me, it doesn’t matter at all what you think about me.
HP: You must not need any tips on the stock market.
TR: I just do interviews and take pictures whenever my camera is working.
HP: I can see you’re a simple man. You’re good for the environment.
TR: May I ask you about the financial collapse?
HP: Being that you’re a true environmentalist, you may ask me whatever you like.
TR: Thank you. My readers would like to know if the bailout money will really work to turn the economy around.
HP: No, of course it won’t. I had to find a way to protect my Asian friends from any defaults. That’s what that was about, not anything else. I know I’ve been criticized for being close to Wall Street, but everyone is close to something, no?
TR: Weren’t you partly responsible for the elimination of the net capital rule in 2004 - the thing that led to the credit crisis?
HP: Sure, sure, but let me tell you what that was about. When I was in the private sector, I lobbied hard against being overly regulated by the government. That’s all true. My mistake was in thinking that everybody in the investment business, when granted more freedom by the Feds, would act responsibly. Instead, they acted like thugs. They really let me down. I was in charge at Goldman Sachs and we stayed clear of the greediness and all those sham securities. That’s why it’s the only firm that survived. All those people who are now criticizing me don’t have a clue.
TR: May I print that?
HP: No, not all of it.
TR: Ok. What about John Ehrlichman?
HP: Who is he?
TR: He used to be your boss under Nixon?
HP: Oh, yes, I forgot. Some things just never go away, do they?
TR: You were almost caught up in Watergate.
HP: That was in 1972 – almost four decades ago. I was just a kid. John Dean cautioned me to keep away from the whole mess and I resented him for it because I wanted to get in on the action. He was a real snake.
TR: But, he saved your reputation.
HP: Without meaning to.
TR: Didn’t you later give him a job as an investment banker at Goldman Sachs?
HP: No. I simply suggested to him that he go into banking – it was a perfect fit. The industry is full of weasels and snitches, you know.
TR: Maybe you’ve had too much beer?
HP: Don’t you want another Corona?
TR: I’m beginning to hear noises in my ears.
HP: Oh, don’t worry. They’re coming from my playroom next door. I have a collection of over a hundred ticker tape machines in there – the kind that every stock broker used to have. At precisely the same time every day, they start whirring away. I love those old machines. They were the internet of the old, old days.
TR: I remember them, of course. You know them all by name?
HP: No.
TR: When did you become concerned about the environment?
HP: When I learned that we were about to run out of oil. The next big money makers will be wind power generation and solar energy.
TR: What do you think is the ultimate power source?
HP: Washington politics.
TR: What about the people?
HP: If I’ve learned anything in the last fifty years, it’s that if you give people something to eat and something to talk about, they’re happy. 98 percent of them don’t even know who I am.
TR: But what about unemployment?
HP: Well, that won’t really become a problem unless it hits 50 percent. We may see a couple of riots here and there but I have set aside 997 billion for that worst-case scenario. Be that as it may, my private jet is on standby to take me and my family to Brazil on a moment’s notice.
TR: Do you have another residence there?
HP: Well, I really doubt that the Coffee Club would be interested in that but, for the record; we’ll just be doing a little environmental research near Rio. Maybe I’ll get lucky and find a new species. I’m going to grab another beer and lie down, if you don’t mind.
TR: Thank you Mr. Paulson.
HP: Thank you, Mr. Quan.

Diamonds

From an investor newsletter – I don’t remember which one: “Russian stocks can make great speculations... The country holds the world's largest reserves of natural gas. It's the world's second-largest oil producer. It has huge amounts of diamonds, timber, gold, and base metals. So when commodities are rising, Russia is "en vogue." But the Russian government is as crooked as a dog's hind leg. One minute, a Russian company has billions in assets... the next, the government takes them. This corruption leads to lightning-fast market declines. We're in "lightning-fast decline" mode in Russia right now. Investors are scared the government will attack more companies. We advise them to be scared of further weakness in the commodity markets. If oil corrects down to $90, this new downtrend will get much worse.”

Well, well, well. Oil has actually corrected to $45. Isn't that amazing? That's not the Russian flag, by the way. It's the official flag of Mexico. One of these days, Mexico might discover diamond and gold mines somewhere - it already has timber, metals, oil, and gas - then it will be even with Russia.

EASIYO and Lilli Ewing

Now hear this: "The food we eat, the life we lead, illness and the ageing process can all disrupt our internal balance. Eating freshly-made EASIYO yogurt every day could really help. EASIYO is Nutrient-dense. For relatively few calories, freshly-made EASIYO yogurt is full of protein, calcium and essential vitamins and minerals to help provide the elements for growth and a good constitution." I got this from their own advertisement. I had never heard of this yogurt brand since I buy mine at Wal-Mart - it looks mighty interesting. Look Lilli Ewing up on MySpace and get yourself motivated to exercise, too. You will be very glad you did. A good diet and lots of exercise - what more do you need? Money?

Joshua Bell

Joshua Bell is an American violinist born on this day (December 9), 1967. Bell began violin lessons at the age of four. Later on, he studied with Joseph Gingold at Indiana University (Jacobs School of Music), from which he graduated in 1989. However, by 1985, he had already made his Carnegie Hall (New York City) debut. He is best known for his soundtrack recording of the violin music on the film The Red Violin. Bell has taught at the Royal Academy of Music (London), MIT, and Indiana University. There is lots of information about him on the internet as well as videos on YouTube and on MySpace websites. He has also recorded most of he standard violin repertoire. He plays the Gibson-ex-Huberman Stradivarius (1713 - a notoriously famous violin.) That's not Joshua Bell on the left - I have no clue who that is but she looks French. God provides beauty in so many different forms - I am simply beyond amazed. Ciao.

Jobs

I don't remember where I picked this quote from, but it really makes no difference.

By Jason Simpkins and William Patalon III: "U.S. consumers are already losing their jobs at an accelerating rate. The same thing is now set to happen to their credit lines. But with so many Americans already losing their main source of income – their jobs – at an ever-spiraling rate, will an economy that derives two-thirds of its power from consumer spending end up mired in its worst funk in decades because those same consumers are now losing their charge accounts?" Some people don't like working all that much anyway, so why complain? For some reassurance, look at the lady's hemline - it's a little high, so that means there's nothing to worry about - things will turn out ok. At least there's unemployment compensation. Things could be bleaker - you could be burning at the stake for voicing your opinion, no? Relax and take a walk in the park. That's what I'm gonna do.

YOGURT

I had never heard of this product though it's been on the market for about eighty years. I guess it takes time for news to travel this far. After all, it took Columbus three months to cross the Atlantic. If you research this brand name yogurt and like it, let me know - I might buy it, depending on the price. I have a hunch it's probably expensive. This quote is from its website: "With its fuller, richer taste and ridiculously thick texture, FAGE Total yogurt has been incredibly successful in the U.S. That’s why the company has invested nearly 85 million dollars in an all-new, state-of-the-art production facility in Johnstown, NY, about 200 miles northwest of New York City. " Maybe we'll all end up as slender as the girl next door.

Lilli Ewing 2

I used to think bodybuilding was an odd thing to do but not anymore. Look at Lilli Ewing - champion bodybuilder. If all young people (and older people for that matter) followed her example, this country would not have an obesity problem. It would also not have so many health issues. We would feel spectacularly well. It's not necessary to develop your body to the extent Lilli Ewing has - she does it because she is a professional trainer and a competitor (Like Arnold, the Governor of California) - but we can all benefit greatly by taking exercise more seriously. And the discipline that working out develops will help us tremendously as well. See for yourself - http://bodyspace.bodybuilding.com/LilliMarlene/

Hemlines and the Economy 2

As I have said before - if you want to know what the economy is up to, look at hemlines. This woman and her husband are taking a nice stroll - they are not worried about deflation and neither should you. Here is an article (which I condensed) taken from an investor advisory newsletter. I'm posting it because I agree with what it says, although most economists don't. By Martin Hutchinson: "The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) both fell in October. Those declines – combined with sharp downward spirals in worldwide stock and commodity prices – have caused many analysts, and even central bankers, to worry that we are on the brink of deflation.
Such concerns may be warranted in the short-term. But in the long run, deflation won’t be the challenge we face.
Thanks to an overly aggressive central bank, and more than $1.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury Department bailout programs – as well as other factors related to the ongoing global financial crisis – inflation will be the problem that ultimately bedevils us.
As long as oil and commodity prices drop, the PPI and CPI indices, which include oil and commodity prices, also will fall. Such a decline, however, does not constitute deflation; it is simply a one-time price adjustment. This is particularly true if most of the commodity-price declines are simply a reversal of excessive increases that had occurred over the previous year. That’s essentially what we’ve been seeing here. However, the deflation believers currently have an additional argument: With output in the United States plunging, and the stock market down around 50% from its October 2007 peak, there are very few pressures pushing prices upward. ... this, however, will not turn into deflation, unless the recession is exceptionally prolonged. Currently, output and employment are dropping very sharply, as is the stock market. This cannot continue for more than a few months – the latest being perhaps late spring of the New Year. As output declines, forces pushing it towards recovery will become stronger and equilibrium will appear." If you can buy 100,000 shares of any safe, conservative stock, do so, while the price is still low.

Lilli Ewing

Lilli Ewing is a champion bodybuilder and a trainer. Bodybuilders are like other athletes - they must put in hours of daily exercise to get in shape. Like swimmers and pole vaulters and boxers and wrestlers and sprinters and gymnasts - they compete against other athletes in the same physical discipline. They create a living sculpture out of their bodies - which amazes me. The human body is an unrivaled piece of machinery. No two sports are the same so the body must be trained and developed according to the particular sport.

Your body

This is Lilli Ewing - she is a bodybuilder. I have no idea how a woman can be such a great bodybuilder and still be as feminine as she is. I don't need to know. All I can say is that it is possible. I admire Lilli Ewing's dedication to her chosen field. She is a great athlete. She is one of my friends on MySpace and (of course) she has her own terrific website and videos on YouTube (http://bodyspace.bodybuilding.com/LilliMarlene/). With just half her motivation I would really be something.

Work it Out

Work is movement. Don't be inert. Just move. Even rich people work - most of them anyway. Paloma Picasso may not need the money but she has worked practically all her life - she needs to work. She will forever be known as the daughter of the famous painter but she works anyway. She does not paint - she designs stuff like jewelry and perfumes and fashion accessories. Learn from her example. She's fifty nine and still working.

Obsession

Is it possible to become obsessed with the stock market, the way you would a beautiful woman or fine liquor? If you're not careful, you could begin to treat it the same way you would a card game like poker. The stock market is not a nice place for gamblers. You have to know something about what you're buying - choose wisely. There are always at least two roads to choose from. My choice is the color blue.