Indebted to China

Someone said that China is now the U.S.'s unofficial banker. They hold more U.S. Treasury bills than any other country. People who work at think tanks must be worried about this, though they are not saying anything - at least not in public. What would happen if the Chinese decided to cash in their Tbills? It has been said that when you make a bank your partner, the bank cannot afford to see you go bankrupt. They will therefore not cash all their bills at once. Perhaps they will opt for 100 billion at a time? The Chinese also converted all of their bills to one-year notes - from thirty year notes. I would not pretend to know why they did that. This topless woman does not know either.

What's up?

From a Yahoo! News story: “NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks climbed on Tuesday, driving the S&P 500 to its best month since October 2002. Upbeat news from Europe set the tone for financials, helping them recover much of Monday's losses and continue a recent robust rally after British bank Barclays (BARC.L) declined to take part in a government asset-protection plan. Even as the broad S&P 500 rose 8.5 percent in March for its best one-month percentage gain since October 2002, uncertainty about the struggling economy left the benchmark U.S. stock index down 11.7 percent for the first quarter.” I think this is rather dumb. Doesn’t anyone adjust for the change in the average? 8.5 percent sounds like a lot but 8.5 percent of 1,000 is a lot less than 8.5 percent of 10,000. There is no reason to smile. Please.

Saxo Bank

There’s this bank in Denmark called the Saxo Bank. It was founded by two men who only have a high school education. Since they have done very well, they can now afford the best talent in the field so that they really don’t need to know anything other than how to motivate their people (they have 1000 employees) and read the bottom line, where it reads “net income.” They have come out with a ridiculous list of prognostications for 2009. Here it is: 1. There will be an Iranian Revolution, 2. Crude oil will hit $25 a barrel, 3. The S&P 500 will hit 500, 4. Italy will drop the EURO, 5. The Aussie dollar will slump, 6. The U.S. Dollar will outstrip the Euro, 7. China’s GDP will go down to zero, 8. Eastern European currencies will fall, 9. Commodity prices will plunge, 10. The Yen will become a currency peg for other Asian currencies. All of this is way off base, but Saxo Bank (an online broker like Scottrade and Etrade but with a banking license) is putting it out to generate some publicity. I shall refer to this list every month to see how their projections are going. I think the woman at left is Danish but that's really irrelevant.

Cheating

A book on Donald Trump is coming out soon or is already out. What do I know? Anyway, the book says something to the effect that Trump is not worth what he says he is - 1.5 billion (or thereabouts). According to reliable sources, Trump is worth closer to 100 million. He is still well off, but not a billionaire. Like the New York banks that went bust, we all thought they had so much liquidity and actually they were living from paycheck to paycheck. That's Donald Trump for you - somewhat of a farce. By the way, that's not Trump on the left - she's a movie star from I forget what era.

Stocks

Take a good look at the man in this picture. One can almost feel the same relief he is feeling at seeing the numbers go up on the board at the NYSE. I hope you bought lots of stock when I advised you to buy a few days ago. I knew the market would go up soon - it simply couldn't go down any further. I will never hesitate to tell you "I told you so." The economic troubles are not solved by any means, but at least the market has been stabilized. The other side of the coin is that the government has gone into debt. That will cause problems, but not for another two or three years. Enjoy the upturn, and don't forget to save as much as you can.