Indebted to China

Someone said that China is now the U.S.'s unofficial banker. They hold more U.S. Treasury bills than any other country. People who work at think tanks must be worried about this, though they are not saying anything - at least not in public. What would happen if the Chinese decided to cash in their Tbills? It has been said that when you make a bank your partner, the bank cannot afford to see you go bankrupt. They will therefore not cash all their bills at once. Perhaps they will opt for 100 billion at a time? The Chinese also converted all of their bills to one-year notes - from thirty year notes. I would not pretend to know why they did that. This topless woman does not know either.

Madoff again

From a Yahoo! News story: “Madoff pleaded guilty Thursday to 11 charges, including fraud, perjury and money laundering, in what could be the biggest swindle in Wall Street history. He faces a maximum sentence of 150 years in prison, and the judge immediately jailed him. In arguing for his release, Madoff's lawyers say they would have a difficult time preparing for his sentencing without the ability to see him frequently to review his finances. They say they expect Madoff will be kept in solitary confinement, with limited contact with his lawyers, at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan. They point out that Madoff did not flee after his December arrest, even though he "was always cognizant of the fact that he would die in prison." All of this was avoidable. Why does a swindler swindle anyway? Because it's so much fun? A game, perhaps?

Hank Paulson interview

Before we start, I must give you a little background (what little I know) about Hank Paulson. He socializes very little, he is an environment enthusiast, he has many, many, many friends in high places in China, and he is obsessed with snakes. The lady in the red wig has nothing to do with Paulson, I just put her there because I wanted to. She looks as if she has no clue where she's going but I bet she does. The wig is probably from the dollar store. As always, any similarity between the person being interviewed and/or any current events is strictly coincidental.

TR: Good afternoon. Are you Hank Paulson?
HP: Yes sir, and you must be Mr. Quan?
TR: No, I’m with the Coffee Club Newsletter.
HP: Where’s Mr. Quan?
TR: I don’t know.
HP: So, why are you here in his place?
TR: I’m not taking his place – I’m here to do an interview with you.
HP: Oh, you’re that other guy. Do you care at all about global warming?
TR: May I come in?
HP: Only if you promise we’ll discuss climate change and the environment.
TR: We can discuss whatever you want to discuss.
HP: Step right this way.
TR: Wow, this looks like a greenhouse.
HP: It is.
TR: I’ve never seen so many indoor plants before.
HP: Wait ‘til you see the snakes.
TR: Snakes? How many snakes?
HP: Twenty six, but they are not all here – some we keep in the bedrooms.
TR: Oh.
HP: I know them all by name.
TR: One for each letter of the alphabet.
HP: How did you guess?
TR: I’m just good at guessing. How do you tell them apart?
HP: They’ve been in the family a number of years – after a while you just recognize them. It’s like telling your dollar bills apart. They’re all the same but they’re all different. There comes Chrimata now from under that fern.
TR: Chrimata?
HP: It’s the Greek word for “money.”
TR: I should have guessed.
HP: And Fiduciary is right behind her. Isn’t he cute?
TR: To me, they’re just snakes.
HP: You have a lot to learn. Let’s sit down in my study.
TR: Can I have a Corona Light?
HP: Sure. That’s my favorite beer - another lucky guess?
TR: No. I just like the way it tastes. I’m glad you have it in the house – even Buckingham Palace doesn’t stock it.
HP: You’ve been there?
TR: I interviewed the Queen.
HP: Sure you did.
TR: I don’t tell lies.
HP: You must be the only one on the planet.
TR: No, my father too.
HP: Really? And where might he be from?
TR: Austria, but he’s in the Himalayas right now.
HP: …doing?
TR: Collecting bark from an old tree.
HP: Is he a researcher, an environmental scientist?
TR: No, he needs it to stay alive.
HP: Is he ill?
TR: Not at all. He’s just really old. He will soon be 2000.
HP: 2000 years old?
TR: Yes.
HP: You know, I’ve been around a lot of bankers and finance people and business people almost all my life…
TR: Yes, I know.
HP: …I have learned to read them pretty well – perfectly, in fact. Even by the slightest inflection in their speech – I can tell when they’re trying to sell me the Brooklyn Bridge. Your story sounds very convincing – you’re either the world’s best liar or you’re telling me the absolute truth.
TR: Well, to me, it doesn’t matter at all what you think about me.
HP: You must not need any tips on the stock market.
TR: I just do interviews and take pictures whenever my camera is working.
HP: I can see you’re a simple man. You’re good for the environment.
TR: May I ask you about the financial collapse?
HP: Being that you’re a true environmentalist, you may ask me whatever you like.
TR: Thank you. My readers would like to know if the bailout money will really work to turn the economy around.
HP: No, of course it won’t. I had to find a way to protect my Asian friends from any defaults. That’s what that was about, not anything else. I know I’ve been criticized for being close to Wall Street, but everyone is close to something, no?
TR: Weren’t you partly responsible for the elimination of the net capital rule in 2004 - the thing that led to the credit crisis?
HP: Sure, sure, but let me tell you what that was about. When I was in the private sector, I lobbied hard against being overly regulated by the government. That’s all true. My mistake was in thinking that everybody in the investment business, when granted more freedom by the Feds, would act responsibly. Instead, they acted like thugs. They really let me down. I was in charge at Goldman Sachs and we stayed clear of the greediness and all those sham securities. That’s why it’s the only firm that survived. All those people who are now criticizing me don’t have a clue.
TR: May I print that?
HP: No, not all of it.
TR: Ok. What about John Ehrlichman?
HP: Who is he?
TR: He used to be your boss under Nixon?
HP: Oh, yes, I forgot. Some things just never go away, do they?
TR: You were almost caught up in Watergate.
HP: That was in 1972 – almost four decades ago. I was just a kid. John Dean cautioned me to keep away from the whole mess and I resented him for it because I wanted to get in on the action. He was a real snake.
TR: But, he saved your reputation.
HP: Without meaning to.
TR: Didn’t you later give him a job as an investment banker at Goldman Sachs?
HP: No. I simply suggested to him that he go into banking – it was a perfect fit. The industry is full of weasels and snitches, you know.
TR: Maybe you’ve had too much beer?
HP: Don’t you want another Corona?
TR: I’m beginning to hear noises in my ears.
HP: Oh, don’t worry. They’re coming from my playroom next door. I have a collection of over a hundred ticker tape machines in there – the kind that every stock broker used to have. At precisely the same time every day, they start whirring away. I love those old machines. They were the internet of the old, old days.
TR: I remember them, of course. You know them all by name?
HP: No.
TR: When did you become concerned about the environment?
HP: When I learned that we were about to run out of oil. The next big money makers will be wind power generation and solar energy.
TR: What do you think is the ultimate power source?
HP: Washington politics.
TR: What about the people?
HP: If I’ve learned anything in the last fifty years, it’s that if you give people something to eat and something to talk about, they’re happy. 98 percent of them don’t even know who I am.
TR: But what about unemployment?
HP: Well, that won’t really become a problem unless it hits 50 percent. We may see a couple of riots here and there but I have set aside 997 billion for that worst-case scenario. Be that as it may, my private jet is on standby to take me and my family to Brazil on a moment’s notice.
TR: Do you have another residence there?
HP: Well, I really doubt that the Coffee Club would be interested in that but, for the record; we’ll just be doing a little environmental research near Rio. Maybe I’ll get lucky and find a new species. I’m going to grab another beer and lie down, if you don’t mind.
TR: Thank you Mr. Paulson.
HP: Thank you, Mr. Quan.

Listen up

I have been advising my eight readers to buy stocks - 100,000 shares to start - as long as they are safe, conservative companies they're buying into. I also said the market has gone as low as it's going to go - 8500 - give or take. Today, the market went up by almost 900 points - 10%. Now, we continue to hear dire predictions about the housing sector. The housing sector will hit bottom in about three months. Some say it won't hit bottom for another year or more. I say no, no, no - three months max. Why does the media enjoy scaring people? Because FEAR sells. The lady at left proves the economy is about to right itself. Hemlines are a better indicator of the state of the economy than any ECONOMIST. Remember that.

Transparency

Pay no attention to the markets. The markets will be just fine - I don't want to repeat myself so much. In less than a year, everyone will be better off. The adjustments will have washed away all the dirty financial grime. The thing you should be paying attention to is the proposal to eliminate cash as an instrument for barter. The Europeans no longer trust the U.S., even if they act like they do. Keep your eyes on the November meeting of the G20. Your credit card will be your new ID. All of this in the name of financial transparency. Get a second opinion if you feel the need.

The future

Well, now it looks like the President must explain himself to a group of world leaders in New York. The papers are saying that the U.S. economy and the rest of the world are inextricably linked and they are right. Now, as a result of this greedy financial fiasco, you can bet that the rest of the world will be very cautious about linking up with the U.S. economy from now on. The U.S. is now beholden to all those foreign governments and big foreign investors for buying so much of the debt guarantees (in the form of bonds). What would happen if the U.S. defaulted? It is not unthinkable. A few months ago, who would have predicted that the country would be left with no large investment banks to speak of? Next up for your tax money? The auto manufacturers. Keep this in mind, the government is not bailing out the economy - it's bailing out the big Wall Street firms which lost billions. Wall Street is holding the economy hostage by saying that it is no longer credit worthy and no bank will lend it a dime so that their enterprises can keep going. Who knew thay had zero liquidity? Of course, a seizing up of the most important credit markets will cause the economy to sputter in a very big way. What a way to do business. The economy will survive this turmoil but the rest of the world will now ponder this sad and risky scenario very seriously and begin to stay clear of the U.S.