2009

From an investment advisory letter: By Tom Dyson: “President-elect Obama makes his inaugural presidential speech on January 20. This speech is going to determine the direction of the stock market for the rest of 2009. Sentiment is the reason this speech is so important. Right now, America is feeling pessimistic. People are worried about their jobs, their houses, and their finances. No one is spending money. To get the financial system working, the government needs you to start shopping again and it needs you to start making risky investments again. In other words, the government needs America to start feeling optimistic again. The financial system we use today is a simple confidence scheme... a Ponzi scheme. To survive and grow, our system needs a constantly increasing river of capital. As long as more capital enters the system than leaves it, the system functions. As soon as new capital shrinks, the whole system breaks down. Debt is the reason. As long as we can find new capital to cover the interest on our existing debts, the system works. When capital dries up and we can't make our payments, the system crashes. This is what happened to Wall Street in October. On January 20, in his inaugural speech, Obama is going to announce a gargantuan government spending plan, probably around $750 billion in size. Obama's plan will make the problem worse. Every dollar the government spends must come from the revenues it receives from taxing Americans. Essentially, Obama will borrow money from the future and spend it today on investments the free market is unwilling to make. This wasted money will hurt our economy for years to come.” There are a few things here that make sense. However, I feel that if you get something for your money, the money is not wasted – no way. The country will get infrastructure, different types of economic engines, and improved efficiencies, out of its investment. If the private sector won’t do it, then a government subsidy is the only way. Or, maybe the country can save for the next twenty years until it can pay cash for everything? I’m no financial guru, but my guess is that that’s not going to happen. Sorry.

Blagojevich saga

Mr. Rod Blagojevich seems to be giving the people of Illinois a hard time. From a New York Times story: “Around the state, elected officials, many exasperated after three weeks of topsy-turvy political drama, responded with fury. “This provocative action is an insult to the people of Illinois,” said Pat Quinn, the lieutenant governor and a fellow Democrat, who added that the governor had defied the desires of an entire state.” Let me suggest something. If someone just finds Rod a good job, he will go away quietly. He needs the money from his job as Governor; he would otherwise not be fighting so hard to keep it. It’s like when your best friend suddenly takes off on you. You will have a hard time dealing with it until you find someone else, no? PLEASE. The woman at left seems to be saying something like “Catch me if you can.”

Saxo Bank

There’s this bank in Denmark called the Saxo Bank. It was founded by two men who only have a high school education. Since they have done very well, they can now afford the best talent in the field so that they really don’t need to know anything other than how to motivate their people (they have 1000 employees) and read the bottom line, where it reads “net income.” They have come out with a ridiculous list of prognostications for 2009. Here it is: 1. There will be an Iranian Revolution, 2. Crude oil will hit $25 a barrel, 3. The S&P 500 will hit 500, 4. Italy will drop the EURO, 5. The Aussie dollar will slump, 6. The U.S. Dollar will outstrip the Euro, 7. China’s GDP will go down to zero, 8. Eastern European currencies will fall, 9. Commodity prices will plunge, 10. The Yen will become a currency peg for other Asian currencies. All of this is way off base, but Saxo Bank (an online broker like Scottrade and Etrade but with a banking license) is putting it out to generate some publicity. I shall refer to this list every month to see how their projections are going. I think the woman at left is Danish but that's really irrelevant.

In Denial

From a story somewhere: WASHINGTON – “The two most influential women in President George W. Bush's White House — first lady Laura Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice — are strongly defending the president's legacy against critics who are calling his administration one of the worst in history. "I know it's not, and so I don't really feel like I need to respond to people that view it that way," Mrs. Bush said in an interview that aired Sunday. "I think history will judge and we'll see later." Rice took a similar view in a separate interview, saying that claims that the Bush administration has been one of the worst ever are "ridiculous." Let’s be real, please. He has dug us a hole so deep that it will be impossible to climb out of it. That is not ridiculous. Please wake up from your slumber.

They own us

From Yahoo! News: Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) – “The global recession is re-exposing fissures in U.S.-China relations that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson spent more than two years smoothing over. Heightened tensions between China and the U.S. may worsen a contraction in world trade that already threatens to deepen and prolong the economic downturn. The friction comes as President-elect Barack Obama readies a two-year stimulus package worth as much as $850 billion that will require the U.S. to borrow more than ever from China, the largest buyer of Treasury securities.” Tell me something I don’t already know. I said this was the situation two months ago. I think Bloomberg is stealing from my blog!!!! Please. No matter what, the woman at left is optimistic. You can tell by the hemline.

Nintendo what?

So this is how the unemployment money is being spent? From Yahoo! News: By Ben Silverman: “Despite early predictions that 2008 would be the year Sony regained momentum in the bitter video game console wars, it turned out to be false hope. Industry leader Nintendo stayed ahead of the pack all year, thoroughly dominating both the home console and handheld hardware markets with their Nintendo Wii and Nintendo DS systems, respectively. According to NPD Group, Nintendo flat-out owned the all-important month of November by selling over 2 million Wiis, better than twice as much as the next closest competitor, Microsoft's Xbox 360 (836,000).” Why don’t people just buy a game of checkers or, better yet, a nice chess set? I wouldn’t even pay $5.00 for one of these electronic gizmos. Do I want to turn into a zombie??? Am I too conservative? No!!! Remember, people who produce TV shows don’t watch TV. Maybe the woman at left does. Who knows?

Executive pay

From an investor advisory newsletter, don’t ask me which one: “In fact, American executives could learn a thing or two from some of their counterparts abroad. Just look at Haruka Nishimatsu, CEO of Japan Airlines Corp. for example. Each morning, Nishimatsu gets down to business immediately after his morning commute to the office – on a city bus. His desk – like those of all the other Japan Airlines employees – sits in the middle of an open office. I know this from personal experience, having sat at a desk just like that when I’ve worked in Japan over the years. He eats lunch in the company cafeteria and hopes – like all Japanese employees – that he’ll have time to eat his meal before it gets cold as he stands in line waiting to pay. This hardly sounds like the life of a corporate CEO, especially when you consider that JAL is one of the world’s top airlines. Nor does the fact that when JAL cut back and asked many of its employees to take early retirement, Nishimatsu first eliminated every one of his own corporate perks, including his own pay – which, at a mere $90,000 (U.S.), is below what JAL’s pilots get paid.” There’s something to be said for modesty and reality checks. Even the woman at left knows this. I have no clue who she is but she appears to be working hard.