From an abbreviated article in an investor newsletter:
By Tom Dyson: Less than nine weeks ago, I was in Singapore, at the headquarters of one of the fastest-growing, best-managed companies in the world. This company is the world leader in water treatment and purification systems. The name of this company is Hyflux. The CFO told me his company was on course to make 300 million Singapore dollars (SG$) in earnings over the next five years. He told me his order book is so full, the company is turning business away. The only problem was, I wasn't the only person who had figured out what a great company Hyflux was. The stock price – at around SG$2.75 – implied the company was worth more than SG$1 billion. I would never spend $1 billion to get $300 million in earnings over five years, even on this superb company."If only this stock was 50% cheaper..." I thought to myself as I left the company, feeling a little deflated. "Maybe someday." Now... after stocks have experienced one of the worst crashes in history, Hyflux is 35% cheaper than it was during my visit. It's amazing it's not down more. International stock markets have been destroyed. Ireland fell 80% during the crash. Russia fell 79%, China fell 74%, Brazil fell 72%, India fell 71%, and Korea was down 70%. In all, 43 stock markets have suffered even greater declines than the U.S. market, and only three did better (Switzerland, Israel, and Jordan).These stupendous declines tell me we're now living in a different world. This isn't just a standard bull-market correction like the crash of 1987. This is something bigger. Like a child who touched a hot stove, investors won't make the same mistake twice. I see a return to thrift and caution all over the world. Saving trumps speculation. Prudence trumps risk. And unfortunately, with this sentiment, it's going to be a long time before emerging-market stocks embark on a new bull market. In light of all this, I'm making cash the focus of my portfolio. Let me explain... First, the crisis we're heading into will have strong deflationary forces. Deflationary means prices fall. I expect we'll see a wave of bankruptcies, defaults, forced selling, and unemployment. Cash will be the most valuable asset around. It already buys double the real estate, the stock, and the natural resources it bought six months ago. I expect cash will be even more powerful in the years to come. I want to own Swiss francs, New Zealand dollars, and U.S. dollars. I'll also be buying safe stocks that generate lots of cash. I'll look to buy a stock like McDonald's or Wal-Mart. The crisis will also have strong inflationary force, as governments furiously pump in cash to revive the economy. These inflationary pressures could generate some spectacular "ripples" in the market. In a few years, we could see the rate of inflation get much higher. END OF ARTICLE
I disagree with almost all of what this guru has to say. Cash might be powerful but not for years to come - perhaps in the next few months to come. Inflation destroys the power of cash. You cannot have too much cash and assets at the same time. Use your cash to buy good, conservative stocks or real estate (not land). Real cash (paper currency) will sooner or later be outlawed anyway. Almost all investor newsletters are the same - they drone on and on about the same things. All they want to do is sell you something.
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