Realization

I just realized I did not post a single word in 2017 - so here are a few for 2018. This gets me all caught up. 

Hidden Treasure Found

I believe I have figured out where Fenn's hidden treasure is. Please see the previous post for more information on this. It was all a very interesting and delightful intellectual exercise. Now, I must get my ass over there and collect it, so to speak. 

Insurance

Never underestimate the value of an insurance policy, whether it's for flying on a jet, or driving a car, or living quietly in a house. Look at what happened to all those Katrina people who had no insurance. The government had to step in to help them - helpless people are like borrowers who have nowhere to turn except other people who may be better off than they are. I remember the time my little sister got suddenly sick and my mom and dad had to take her to the hospital. He showed them an insurance policy but they couldn't accept it - it was a life insurance policy. Poor dad - he simply didn't know better. When I received a shipment from UPS that arrived in less than perfect condition, they were excellent about reimbursing me - the item was insured. Think about it - I know this woman will.

Accountability? hahaha

From an investor newsletter - don't ask me which one - there are so many: "After receiving hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer-funded federal bailout money, the biggest U.S. banks say they can’t track how that money is being spent. Some of the banks are outright refusing to discuss the matter, a new study has found." Isn't this attitude just like the one that got us in this fine mess to begin with? Where's the government when you need it? Where is that famous bully pulpit I keep hearing about? Who is accountable? Hello? PLEASE. That photo shows a pressed wood violin. That's what the financial system is now made of - PRESSED WOOD. It used to be OAK.

Lesson learned?

From an investor advisory letter: “A lot of people are wondering if there is anything at all good that will come from the financial crisis. Call me naïve if you like or even an eternal optimist, but I think so, beginning with the following: A regulatory overhaul leading to pro-active regulation: With regard to the financial markets, I believe that we will see new mechanisms designed to monitor problems before they get out of control. Some of that will include more transparent valuations and mark-to-market rules, but the lion's share will likely focus on the credit extension problems that have largely created this mess on a variety of levels. What's more, history suggests these changes will stand in stark contrast to Alan Greenspan's repeated refusals to crack down on sub-prime lending practices and his hesitation to impose regulations on derivatives that have figured so prominently in the current meltdown.” I disagree – I think people will always be greedy and irresponsible. In the meantime, Greenspan sits comfortably in his easy chair. Despite his old age, he is not wise. The woman at left probably has no opinion on the matter – she is simply waiting for us to act responsibly, PLEASE.

Hank Paulson interview

Before we start, I must give you a little background (what little I know) about Hank Paulson. He socializes very little, he is an environment enthusiast, he has many, many, many friends in high places in China, and he is obsessed with snakes. The lady in the red wig has nothing to do with Paulson, I just put her there because I wanted to. She looks as if she has no clue where she's going but I bet she does. The wig is probably from the dollar store. As always, any similarity between the person being interviewed and/or any current events is strictly coincidental.

TR: Good afternoon. Are you Hank Paulson?
HP: Yes sir, and you must be Mr. Quan?
TR: No, I’m with the Coffee Club Newsletter.
HP: Where’s Mr. Quan?
TR: I don’t know.
HP: So, why are you here in his place?
TR: I’m not taking his place – I’m here to do an interview with you.
HP: Oh, you’re that other guy. Do you care at all about global warming?
TR: May I come in?
HP: Only if you promise we’ll discuss climate change and the environment.
TR: We can discuss whatever you want to discuss.
HP: Step right this way.
TR: Wow, this looks like a greenhouse.
HP: It is.
TR: I’ve never seen so many indoor plants before.
HP: Wait ‘til you see the snakes.
TR: Snakes? How many snakes?
HP: Twenty six, but they are not all here – some we keep in the bedrooms.
TR: Oh.
HP: I know them all by name.
TR: One for each letter of the alphabet.
HP: How did you guess?
TR: I’m just good at guessing. How do you tell them apart?
HP: They’ve been in the family a number of years – after a while you just recognize them. It’s like telling your dollar bills apart. They’re all the same but they’re all different. There comes Chrimata now from under that fern.
TR: Chrimata?
HP: It’s the Greek word for “money.”
TR: I should have guessed.
HP: And Fiduciary is right behind her. Isn’t he cute?
TR: To me, they’re just snakes.
HP: You have a lot to learn. Let’s sit down in my study.
TR: Can I have a Corona Light?
HP: Sure. That’s my favorite beer - another lucky guess?
TR: No. I just like the way it tastes. I’m glad you have it in the house – even Buckingham Palace doesn’t stock it.
HP: You’ve been there?
TR: I interviewed the Queen.
HP: Sure you did.
TR: I don’t tell lies.
HP: You must be the only one on the planet.
TR: No, my father too.
HP: Really? And where might he be from?
TR: Austria, but he’s in the Himalayas right now.
HP: …doing?
TR: Collecting bark from an old tree.
HP: Is he a researcher, an environmental scientist?
TR: No, he needs it to stay alive.
HP: Is he ill?
TR: Not at all. He’s just really old. He will soon be 2000.
HP: 2000 years old?
TR: Yes.
HP: You know, I’ve been around a lot of bankers and finance people and business people almost all my life…
TR: Yes, I know.
HP: …I have learned to read them pretty well – perfectly, in fact. Even by the slightest inflection in their speech – I can tell when they’re trying to sell me the Brooklyn Bridge. Your story sounds very convincing – you’re either the world’s best liar or you’re telling me the absolute truth.
TR: Well, to me, it doesn’t matter at all what you think about me.
HP: You must not need any tips on the stock market.
TR: I just do interviews and take pictures whenever my camera is working.
HP: I can see you’re a simple man. You’re good for the environment.
TR: May I ask you about the financial collapse?
HP: Being that you’re a true environmentalist, you may ask me whatever you like.
TR: Thank you. My readers would like to know if the bailout money will really work to turn the economy around.
HP: No, of course it won’t. I had to find a way to protect my Asian friends from any defaults. That’s what that was about, not anything else. I know I’ve been criticized for being close to Wall Street, but everyone is close to something, no?
TR: Weren’t you partly responsible for the elimination of the net capital rule in 2004 - the thing that led to the credit crisis?
HP: Sure, sure, but let me tell you what that was about. When I was in the private sector, I lobbied hard against being overly regulated by the government. That’s all true. My mistake was in thinking that everybody in the investment business, when granted more freedom by the Feds, would act responsibly. Instead, they acted like thugs. They really let me down. I was in charge at Goldman Sachs and we stayed clear of the greediness and all those sham securities. That’s why it’s the only firm that survived. All those people who are now criticizing me don’t have a clue.
TR: May I print that?
HP: No, not all of it.
TR: Ok. What about John Ehrlichman?
HP: Who is he?
TR: He used to be your boss under Nixon?
HP: Oh, yes, I forgot. Some things just never go away, do they?
TR: You were almost caught up in Watergate.
HP: That was in 1972 – almost four decades ago. I was just a kid. John Dean cautioned me to keep away from the whole mess and I resented him for it because I wanted to get in on the action. He was a real snake.
TR: But, he saved your reputation.
HP: Without meaning to.
TR: Didn’t you later give him a job as an investment banker at Goldman Sachs?
HP: No. I simply suggested to him that he go into banking – it was a perfect fit. The industry is full of weasels and snitches, you know.
TR: Maybe you’ve had too much beer?
HP: Don’t you want another Corona?
TR: I’m beginning to hear noises in my ears.
HP: Oh, don’t worry. They’re coming from my playroom next door. I have a collection of over a hundred ticker tape machines in there – the kind that every stock broker used to have. At precisely the same time every day, they start whirring away. I love those old machines. They were the internet of the old, old days.
TR: I remember them, of course. You know them all by name?
HP: No.
TR: When did you become concerned about the environment?
HP: When I learned that we were about to run out of oil. The next big money makers will be wind power generation and solar energy.
TR: What do you think is the ultimate power source?
HP: Washington politics.
TR: What about the people?
HP: If I’ve learned anything in the last fifty years, it’s that if you give people something to eat and something to talk about, they’re happy. 98 percent of them don’t even know who I am.
TR: But what about unemployment?
HP: Well, that won’t really become a problem unless it hits 50 percent. We may see a couple of riots here and there but I have set aside 997 billion for that worst-case scenario. Be that as it may, my private jet is on standby to take me and my family to Brazil on a moment’s notice.
TR: Do you have another residence there?
HP: Well, I really doubt that the Coffee Club would be interested in that but, for the record; we’ll just be doing a little environmental research near Rio. Maybe I’ll get lucky and find a new species. I’m going to grab another beer and lie down, if you don’t mind.
TR: Thank you Mr. Paulson.
HP: Thank you, Mr. Quan.

Bottom

This quote is from some publication - don't ask me which one - maybe Yahoo. "I don't think anyone can say we've reached the bottom yet," said Chuck Gabriel, managing director of Capital Alpha Partners in Washington. "It's going to be a very gloomy Christmas." Kim Caughey, equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh, said that "for investors to get more confidence, we need to know details" of the new administration's plans to handle the crisis. "There's been a vacuum of leadership" she added, "and when that happens, you get fear and rumors, and then people sell." It came from about two weeks ago. These people know nothing. They panic just like everyone else. Even their guesses are half-hearted. They are too scared to stick their necks out and say something concrete. I think what I said was that the market had already hit bottom - it's time to start buying. You can have a different opinion, of course, but at least state it - don't be a marshmallow when you talk - please.

Horse sense II

Okay, the credit emergency seems not to be over. Lots of people never saw it as a real emergency since the stock market seemed to be doing fine inspite of the delay in securing the 700 billion dollar injection of funds but there you have it. There is more to be done. More businesses to save. More jobs to create. It will be so much fun. Did Wall Street learn anything? Who knows? Just buy as many conservative shares as you can while they're still cheap. I think WAMU is about 4 cents. Is that cheap enough? We need an injection of plain old horse sense. That's what we need.

Stock Market Up

I told you so. Today, the market is at 9325 and going up steadily. If you didn't buy at least 100,000 shares when I first advised you three weeks ago, it is a little late now. Sure, the market will continue to go up, but only a little at a time. The time was ripe when the market hit 8500. If you don't have a broker, go outside and look for the hemlines on ladies like the one on the left. That is the only sure indicator of where the market is headed. I told you so.

Listen up

I have been advising my eight readers to buy stocks - 100,000 shares to start - as long as they are safe, conservative companies they're buying into. I also said the market has gone as low as it's going to go - 8500 - give or take. Today, the market went up by almost 900 points - 10%. Now, we continue to hear dire predictions about the housing sector. The housing sector will hit bottom in about three months. Some say it won't hit bottom for another year or more. I say no, no, no - three months max. Why does the media enjoy scaring people? Because FEAR sells. The lady at left proves the economy is about to right itself. Hemlines are a better indicator of the state of the economy than any ECONOMIST. Remember that.

Money and Markets

Money and Markets has produced a free one-hour video which you (one of my eight readers) might be interested in, especially if you're looking forward to some day receiving payments from your 401K pension.

Here is what the banking experts behind Money and Markets say:
"We NAME NAMES — 198 of the big banks we believe are most likely to fail, the 197 strongest banks in America, and the most solid brokers as well ...
We give you the simple, step-by-step instructions for finding out how safe your bank is even if it's not one of the 395 named in the X-List report ...
And we give you the four crucial guidelines to follow when choosing a bank to trust with your money." There is, of course, tons of other useful financial information in the video. Buy stocks and plenty of them, but make sure you're investing conservatively. Do not worry about the stock market. It can only go up.

Never mind

Never mind. The fiscal-financial-economic-credit emergency is not over. I guess lots of representatives heard from the constituents. They voted the deal down. Amazing!!! Unfortunately, the bailout is still necessary whether we like it or not. Even Warren Buffett said so. Not that he knows anything, but still, he's older than we are.

Guillotine time

As the market gets shakier and shakier, people wonder more and more what went wrong. All these smart people in charge of the entire economy - less than two dozen people was all it took to bring things to a fine mess - the credit market at a standstill. We now know that even the biggest businesses and the biggest banks were living from paycheck to paycheck. The aura and charisma of success was all just a veneer. I think the biggest and wealthiest American investors will soon start putting their money into Europe, China, and even Russia. How cool is that? As Sir Winston said, "Never have so few owed so much to so many." The Timid Reporter will post his interview of Jimmy Cayne here soon.